Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Uranium Stocks Surge as Japan inches closer to Nuclear Restarts

Published on Wednesday February 26 2014 (AEST  

 Uranium stocks jumped higher on Tuesday after Japan unveiled a pro-nuclear energy plan that could lead to restarts of some of its long-idled nuclear reactors.

The restarts are a key catalyst for the uranium sector that investors have awaited for years. Shares of industry leader Cameco Corp. jumped 8% on the news, Denison Mines Corp. rose 9%, and Paladin Energy Ltd. climbed 11.5%. Smaller companies such as Ur-Energy Inc. made even bigger gains (up 18%).

Shinzo Abe’s government released a draft of its long-awaited Basic Energy Plan, which makes a commitment to nuclear power as part of Japan’s energy mix. The plan, which is expected to receive cabinet approval in weeks, could open the door to restarting some of Japan’s 48 idled reactors as soon as this year. The plan also hints at new reactors, according to reports.

The reactors were shut down following the Fukushima disaster in March 2011. It was a devastating event for the nuclear power business, and gutted short-term demand for uranium.


Mr. Abe has pushed a pro-nuclear agenda since becoming prime minister in late 2012. He implemented new safety standards for the industry, which created a framework in which reactors could eventually restart. Currently, 17 reactors are being reviewed for potential restarts.
“Things are lining up nicely as we go along. It’s just taking longer than we thought it would [for the restarts],” Cameco chief executive Tim Gitzel said Tuesday at the BMO Global Metals and Mining Conference in Florida.

Before the Fukushima accident, nuclear power made up roughly 30% of Japan’s energy mix. It is unlikely to play such a large role in the future, but the energy plan provides proof that Japan is committed to nuclear power and will not attempt to phase it out completely as Germany is doing.

Investors lost interest in the uranium sector immediately after Fukushima, and the stocks have performed poorly ever since. However, they have picked up some momentum this year, partly in anticipation of reactor restarts in Japan.

The uranium producers have acknowledged that there is more than enough uranium supply to meet demand in the short term. But they believe the long-term picture remains very positive due to new reactor construction in China and other countries. There are 70 reactors under construction worldwide and another 173 being planned, according to the World Nuclear Association.

“The long-term story for our industry is a growth story,” Mr. Gitzel said.

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Saturday, February 8, 2014

Paladin Energy Suspends Uranium Production At Kayelekera

Published on Friday February 07 2014 (AEST)  

 Australian Uranium Producer Paladin Energy, announced Friday that it is suspending production at its Kayelekera uranium mine in Malawi, calling the operation a substantial drain on its cash resources over the last three years. 

The company told investors that the suspension will involve placing the operation on care and maintenance status until the price of uranium recovers. 

The move is expected to preserve the remaining ore body until this time, when Paladin decides that production can resume on a profitable basis. The price of uranium oxide has been depressed ever since March 2011, when the Fukushima earthquake and tsunami hit in Japan. During this period, the spot uranium price has more than halved from US$72.63 per pound prior to Fukushima, to a current price of US$35.50 per pound. 

The government of Malawi holds a 15% interest in Paladin's African subsidiary (PAL), which holds the uranium mine in Malawi. The company said it will work with government authorities to implement the suspension, which is also a result of the "unsustainable" cash burden to maintain the loss-making operation.
"The Kayelekera Mine has performed exceptionally well technically, with production levels recorded at or near nameplate capacity over the past 12 months and significant achievements made in PAL's cost reduction programme," said CEO John Borshoff. 

"Nevertheless, despite these considerable efforts, KM continues to operate at a loss due to the low prevailing uranium price. Paladin is unable to continue to provide the level of financial support that PAL has required in recent years, hence the decision at this time."

Indeed, the company said that based on a uranium price of US$35 per pound, Paladin would have had to inject a further US$20 to $25 million in cash for each of the next two years to maintain the operation.
Paladin is forecasting that putting the mine on care and maintenance will improve its expected cash flow position by US$7 to US$10 million in 2014 and in the range of US$20 to US$25 million in 2015. 

The cost of suspension, estimated at US$12 million per year, will be funded from proceeds to be received from the sale of uranium oxide on hand and produced during the rundown phase, Paladin said. 

The company noted that production and cost estimates for its Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia, which has a significantly lower cost profile than Kayelekera, will not be affected by the suspension.

As a result of the decision, the company revised its production forecast for this year downwards, to 7.8 to 8.0 million pounds of uranium oxide, from its previous guidance of 8.3 to 8.7 million pounds.


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Thursday, February 6, 2014

Peninsula Energy Begins Setting the Stage for Diversified Uranium Production

Published on Thursday February 06 2014 (AEST)   
With so many uranium companies at play in the current market, it can be difficult to know which ones present investors with the best opportunities. And while investors are strongly encouraged to do their own due diligence, it’s worth having a peek at which companies have landed on our readers’ radar. 
 By - Exclusive to Uranium Investing News



Based on a recent reader request, Uranium Investing News (UIN) reached out to John (Gus) Simpson, executive chairman of Peninsula Energy (ASX:PEN), to learn more about what sets the company apart from other uranium exploration and development companies vying for investor attention.

Peninsula Energy has set its sights on becoming a diversified uranium producer. The company plans to accomplish this feat through the development of its large uranium assets in both Wyoming and South Africa.

UIN: Recently Peninsula Energy was identified as one of the uranium companies our readers are watching. In your opinion, what is it about Peninsula that sets it apart from other companies in its class?

JS: I think two things set us apart. The first is the scale of our deposits. Most teams in Wyoming are looking at production levels of around half a million to a million pounds a year, and we’re looking at 2 to 3 million pounds. We’re licensing our central processing plant to do that.

The second is that we have two project groups. We’ve obviously got Wyoming, as I just mentioned, where we’ve currently got 54 million pounds, but we believe ultimately we’ll have several hundred million pounds.
The other project group is a very large South African projects in the Karoo where we have about 8,000 square kilometers of mineral tenements, 100 million pounds of resources — we believe that there’s probably close to 300 to 350 million pounds within the tenement holding. The scale of that project — if and when it gets into production — will be 3 to 4 million pounds a year for production.
Our projects are big and not something typically you find in a junior. We’ve been fortunate enough to have enormous exploration success in Wyoming, and we’ve discovered 50 million pounds for less than a dollar a pound.

As for South Africa, post-Fukushima AREVA (EPA:AREVA) was unloading of a lot of assets around the world due to a combination of factors, the largest one being the performance of uranium. When they tried to get rid of them in early 2012, there wasn’t much interest, so we managed to do a good deal with them.


UIN: Peninsula has assets in both the United States and Africa. Can you share a little about how these jurisdictions compare?

JS: Obviously the United States is a much more regulated environment but a much more stable environment. South Africa, on the other hand, is one of the world’s great mining economies and subsequently has enormously good infrastructure and a very large pool of skilled labor with expertise in the mining field.


UIN: Being in these different jurisdictions, you also have a fair amount of diversification. How important is diversification of assets in the grand scheme of things?

JS: Diversification is very important. We are trying to model the requirements of utilities — end users of products. For them, it’s all about security of supply. Utilities are looking, in my opinion, for producers that have got geographical and jurisdictional diversity. Within that diversity they want long life and low cost, which reside in first-tier jurisdictions. That diversity and those qualifications, in my opinion, make for very stable relationships.


UIN: Peninsula’s main project, Lance, is located in Wyoming. What is it about the state that makes it attractive for uranium mining?

JS: Wyoming is attractive in that it’s been in continuous uranium production since 1951.The big players are there with Cameco (TSX:CCO,NYSE:CCJ) and Uranium One (TSX:UUU) and Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) (but it isn’t actually operating). There have been three new mines that have come into production in the last eigthteen months, and several others are in the final stages of permitting and construction. Overall, it’s a very uranium-friendly environment. There is also a long history of successful production from ISR, which is what we’re doing there.


UIN: Speaking of ISR, Marin Katusa recently said that the success stories in the current uranium market will come from companies with the lowest cost of production, namely ISR operations. What are your average production costs?

JS: Our operation costs are about $11 a pound. Our total all-in costs, excluding capital, are sub-$30.
The difference for us and why costs are low — or expected to be lower — compared to other companies, is due of the impact of capital. Because we have a very large resource, 50 million pounds, we’re amortizing the capital cost over a longer period and more pounds.


UIN: What are some of the key features investors should know about the Lance project? What kind of expansion potential does the project have?

JS: Long mine life, low cost, good grade, first-class production team, very experienced production team, very strong shareholder support from groups like Blackrock, Pala and others.
Our planned production is 2.2 million pounds, ramping up over several years. Central processing facility is licenced for 3 million pounds, and our plan is to look for satellite orebodies — of which there are several — within the Powder River Basin that we can incorporate with a separate ion exchange operation and truck loaded resin to our central processing plant. So that being said, we have about a 30 percent capacity for expansion.

With South Africa coming on as a second project probably three or four years behind it, we have the potential there for another three or four million pounds.

And I think that that is how we are perceived by the utilities. As a potential mid-tier producer filling that space that currently is being vacated by Uranium One as a public company.


UIN: Briefly can you tell us a little more about your South African projects?

JS: They’re the next in line for production. We have to go through feasibility, engineering, financing, but there’s a lot of interest in South Africa to provide the funding and uptake for these.

The projects will be mined through conventional open-pit then underground mining, again with a central processing plant. We have a very big holding there, it’s an amazing project.

If you look at our latest presentation, there’s some scale of it. We’ve got three palio channels where we’ve got mineralization occurring over 50 miles for each of them. It’s very heavily mineralized and high-grade material that is near-surface and open-pittable material that you put a decline in and go into. We’re talking between 1,000 and 1,400 ppm.


UIN: Can you help our readers understand a little more about what the nuclear landscape looks like in South Africa?

JS: South Africa only has about two nuclear power stations, and they intend to build another six — which I believe the Russians are lead contenders for.

There’s a requirement of Eskom if they purchase South African fuel. That’s a regulatory requirement in South Africa, but that will not restrict us where we sell it. What’s more important is that South Africa is very well versed in the mineral recovery and mineral sales and has all the infrastructure to facilitate the growth of mining, and specifically uranium. It’s a very good place to be operating.


UIN: So, Peninsula is strategically placed to take advantage of several markets?

JS: I’d say so.


UIN: What else do you have planned for the future?

JS: Our intention is to acquire and build a project in Australia and look into the growing Asian market as well.

One of the biggest assets that we have outside of our projects is our strong production team in the United States, which has unique skills in ISR. We’ve also got a very strong global exploration team in South Africa and Australia.

These teams and these people are going to turn opportunities into success. That’s overlain by a strong board and financial expertise within the group. We think that we are very well positioned to become a major player in the game as the market improves for uranium and for us to have a significant increase in value. We believe that we can ultimately become a multi-billion dollar company and that’s the plan.


UIN: Well, that wraps up my questions. Thank you for taking the time to speak with me.

JS: Thank you.




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Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Paladin Energy PT Raised to C$0.70 at TD Securities (PDN)

Published on Wednesday January 22 2014 (AEST)  

Equities researchers at TD Securities hoisted their price objective on shares of Paladin Energy (TSE:PDN) from C$0.60 to C$0.70 in a research report issued on Tuesday, American Banking and Market News reports. The firm currently has a “hold” rating on the stock. TD Securities’ target price would indicate a potential upside of 16.67% from the stock’s previous close.

Paladin Energy (TSE:PDN) traded down 8.33% on Tuesday, hitting $0.55. The stock had a trading volume of 2,006,448 shares. Paladin Energy has a one year low of $0.375 and a one year high of $1.30. The stock has a 50-day moving average of $0.45 and a 200-day moving average of $0.54. The company’s market cap is $529.8 million.

Other equities research analysts have also recently issued reports about the stock. Analysts at Scotiabank raised their price target on shares of Paladin Energy from C$0.55 to C$0.60 in a research note to investors on Friday. They now have a “sector perform” rating on the stock. 

Analysts at Raymond James reiterated a “market perform” rating on shares of Paladin Energy in a research note to investors on Wednesday, January 15th. They now have a C$0.50 price target on the stock. One research analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, five have assigned a hold rating and two have given a buy rating to the stock. The company presently has an average rating of “Hold” and a consensus price target of C$1.07.

Paladin Energy Ltd (TSE:PDN) is a uranium production company with projects in Australia and two operating mines in Africa.



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Monday, January 20, 2014

Paladin Energy Sells 25% Stake In Langer Heinrich Uranium Mine

Published on Monday January 20 2014 (AEST)

China's Top Nuclear firm to buy stake in Australian Company's Uranium Mine in Namibia

China National Nuclear Corporation has agreed to buy a 25 per cent stake in Australian miner Paladin Energy’s uranium mine in Namibia for US$190 million, locking in supplies as Beijing builds new nuclear plants for cleaner energy.
CNNC is the bigger of two state-owned nuclear power conglomerates, controlling nine of the country’s 17 reactor units and working on an ambitious reactor construction programme to help China ease its dependence on coal-fired power.

The firm has agreed to buy a quarter of the production from the Langer Heinrich mine, which has a capacity of 5.2 million pounds of uranium concentrate a year, and has the option to buy further supplies from Paladin at market rates.

“I do believe, through the investment in the Langer Heinrich project, CNNC and Paladin will develop a long-lasting business relationship which is beneficial to each other and also bring long-term influence to the global uranium mining industry,” CNNC director general for geology and mining Du Yunbin said in a statement.

This is China’s second foray into uranium in Namibia, following China Guangdong Nuclear Power’s US$2.3 billion acquisition of the Husab project, one of the world’s biggest uranium deposits, in 2012.

The deal will help stabilise Paladin following three years of pain as uranium prices have sagged in the wake of Japan’s Fukushima disaster, which killed Japanese demand for the mineral and led to other countries halting nuclear expansion plans.

“The significant cash injection from this minority interest sale will largely be applied to debt reduction, which the board considers an essential step during a time of unprecedented low uranium prices,” Paladin chief executive John Borshoff said in a statement.

CNNC’s acquisition is subject to approvals from Chinese authorities, including the National Development and Reform Commission, which Paladin said were expected to be obtained by the middle of the year.


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Thursday, January 16, 2014

Paladin Energy Partial Uranium Mine sale expected in Coming Days

 Published on Thursday January 16 2014 (AEST)

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Paladin Energy said talks around the sale of its Langer Heinrich uranium mine were progressing as the price for uranium begins to improve.


 LANGER HEINRICH MINORITY INTEREST SALE
 
Strong interest from a variety of parties to sell a minority interest in Langer Heinrich continues. Paladin offers a unique platform in the uranium supply sector generating competition from the nuclear industry for an association both for current production and future growth. 


Paladin has confidence in an outcome which will alleviate  shareholder concerns regarding debt, noting the next tranche of Convertible Bonds is not due until November 2015.



The Perth-based miner flagged its intentions to sell its stake in the African mine in August when it announced a raft of cost-cutting measures to combat the weakening price of uranium.
While it was widely thought a deal would be inked before Christmas, Paladin chief executive John Borshoff said more details would become available in the next few weeks, The West Australian reported.
"Things are progressing and we will see what the next month or so will bring," he said.

The company’s quarterly report is due this week, but yesterday Paladin released an update for its Manyingee deposit, 80km east of Onslow.

The project has been upgraded, with the company reporting it now holds an inferred and indicated resource of 25.9 million pounds at an average grade of 850ppm, making it WA's fifth largest uranium project.
While Borshoff the project was a long-term play for the miner, he said the stubbornly low uranium price meant all new developments had been put on the backburner.

"It's unsustainable at the moment," Borshoff said.
"Everyone has declared a moratorium on new projects. It's all hanging by a thread and at some point this year it has got to turn."

Last year the company made a $US173 million loss in the three months to June.
Paladin signalled it would slash corporate and exploration costs by $US10.8 million, a 24 per cent reduction.
While capital expenditure will be cut by $US12.4 million over the next two financial years.

The miner said production costs have fallen 12 per cent at Langer Heinrich, with further targets aimed at reducing this to 15 per cent.

While cash costs at Kayelekera have dropped by 20 per cent, with the company aiming for a 22 per cent target.


article edited
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Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Uranium bull market to gather steam over next 18 months - Scotiabank

Published on Wednesday January 15 2014 (AEST)

Scotiabank analysts make noise on the uranium drum, drawing a what-if supply/price picture if Japan restarts reactors


Scotiabank analysts are bullish uranium. 

They have been for some time. As we noted in early 2013, Patricia Mohr, Scotiabank's vice-president economics and commodity market specialist, made the case that uranium prices, decimated by the 2011 Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear disaster, would rebound mid-decade. It's not a position that has changed. In her latest commodities report on December 19, 2013 she labelled uranium a "turnaround story" for the mid-2010s. Her thesis - as outlined at the AME BC Roundup conference last year - is heavily contingent on three factors: decreasing sources of stockpiled uranium, increasing reactor builds in China and restarting reactors in Japan, still on idle after the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear disaster in 2011, which decimated uranium prices.

The first two parameters are better known entities. Stockpiles have dropped. China is building reactors. But the third is a more fraught issue. It's an open question if, or (perhaps more realistically) how many, reactors Japan will restart. It's a contentious subject in Japan given justifiable fears over nuclear contamination following the Fukushima disaster.

Still, that some nuclear power plant will come back online, seems quite possible. According to The Japan Times Japan's government led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has called nuclear power an "important baseload power source." The high cost of importing fuels reportedly has power companies pushing hard to clear the way for some reactor restarts. Bloomberg counts some 16 applications for permission to do so under stiffer regulations enacted last year.


 And if they do restart?

Again over at Scotiabank, analyst Ben Isaacson takes the view that supply/demand will tighten and prices will rise. In a recent note, he plotted his view - in some detail - of uranium prices and producer shareprices assuming Japan restarts 10 reactors in the next 18 months and more thereafter. Isaacson sees contract uranium prices - down 30 percent from 2011 to around $50 a pound in recent months - climbing to $59 a pound, on average, this year and rising to $78 a pound by 2017. Spot prices, likewise, climb to $39 a pound this year and hit $70 pound in 2017.

"Without rising demand, the uranium price would likely stabilize at the current level since we are in a temporary supply-driven market," Isaacson noted. "However, our base-case demand outlook sees an incremental 34 million lb U3O8 needed annually by 2020." That's the effect of Japan restarts and new Chineses reactors coming online.



Longterm uranium prices after Cameco monthly averages. Graph: Kip Keen
Isaacson makes an interesting point on the uranium investment sector. "Simply put, there aren't many ways to play the space, which we like to see." As evidence of that, he notes that excepting Areva, which you might consider more a nuclear company and less a miner, Canadian uranium-miner Cameco is the only large-cap uranium play. 

Thus, in initiating coverage, Isaacson covers some of the usual suspects. Cameco gets a $27 a share target; Denison Mines: $1.80; Paladin: $0.55; and Uranium Participation (a uranium stockpiler): $6.75.

He concludes: "However investors choose to play this niche commodity, we believe patience will be rewarded as we forecast a bull market (beginning) to form over the next 18 months. Accordingly, we think investors should position for a recovery."
But much, as ever, depends on what Japan decides to do with its idled reactors. Developments there must be watched closely.

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